Monday, October 9, 2017

New Rules of Engagement in Afghanistan


When the United States announced its new Rules of Engagement Policy regarding its Conflict in Afghanistan with the Taliban, we, in effect, learned what the old Rules of Engagement were.  It seem that the Obama Administration, in order to persuade the Taliban to go lightly on the Americans, since the Americans were planning on significantly ratcheting down their presence to a skeleton of what it had been, committed to the policy of Fighting Only When Attacked.  Basically it was “If you don’t screw with us, we won’t screw with you”; “live and let live”; “be smart enough to let a sleeping dog lie”.  Such a policy would allow for as much ‘peace’ as could be expected in a Nation where ‘war’ has become perhaps their biggest money making ‘Industry’.  You see, from the Taliban point of view, if the Americans stopped being such a nuisance then they could certainly be tolerated to stay, since they were no slackers in regards to paying their way.   The Americans were spending tons of money in the Country, much of it going to the Taliban as ‘protection money’ ( you see, there were ‘Security Companies’ that were contracted by Afghanistan Businesses, Municipalities and even by the American Armed Forces to ‘protect’ certain areas, roads, buildings, etc.  But these Security Companies merely channeled the lion’s share of the money to the Taliban to persuade them to keep their distance. ), and I would suppose even the Afghan Government, the nominal sworn enemies of the Taliban would divert funds to the Taliban so that they would come out and fight every once in a while, but nothing too severe.  You see, as soon as there is any true and lasting Peace in Afghanistan, America would simply pack up its Billion Dollar War Machine and go home.  After all, America is now sworn to never ever again to engage in ‘Nation Building’ but would be perfectly willing to stay forever as long as there is a Fight.   So if it is a Fight they want, then it is a Fight they’ll get… even if it has to be Stage Played.   Without War Afghanistan would only have the opium and heroin Trade to pay all its bills, and prices there have dipped since the American Pharmaceutical Companies have flooded the American Drug Markets with cheap ‘black market’ opioid pills (if not the work of the Board of Directors, we can well imagine that in any big Pill Factory that nobody can actually counts every single pill that the machines spit out, thousands each second, and if there ARE numbers, that such numbers can’t be played with.  I suppose in each big Pill Factory there must be at least 50 workers and Managers who have gone into business for themselves, carrying home a lunch pail or briefcase full of pills every day.  Oh, and then there could be the Conspiratorial Partnerships, where some middle level Production Manager teams up with a Shipping Clerk to ship complete crates of Pills to some ‘shell company’ address somewhere, while erasing any Paperwork Trail of the bogus transaction.   And then certain foreign Generic Factories probably don’t even have to hide it, except to be careful how they ship the pills in.  You can only imagine how many things that get shipped across the border which are basically hollow and can be filled with pills, and the drug dogs at America’s International Airports aren’t trained to go crazy about ‘prescription drugs’, and the Big Overnight Shipping Companies don’t even wait for Customs Inspections anyway and packages go almost directly from plane to delivery truck… yeah, I wonder how that works, but that’s another story), so with the bottom knocked out of the Opium Trade Afghanistan would go broke without the War.  So I suppose the tacit policy of both the Afghan Government and the Taliban was to fight just enough to keep America interested, involved and reliably reaching to pick up the check and pay the bill.  

 

Now, certainly, there must be Career Government People, Military Leaders and even some Politicians who see what’s going on.  And, yes, there are actually some people who react in repulsion to such a suggestion that the War is largely artificial.  For instance, a few years back when the Fight in Afghanistan was an International Affair, that is, when America was diplomatically ‘twisting arms’ of other Nations to join the Fight, well, there was a situation where the French sent in a few Battalions and they stayed a year, and were to be replaced by a Detachment of Italians.  Well, the Italians were pleased because apparently they were going to be in a Really Quiet Zone.  But the French, before leaving, told the Italians that such Tranquility was no Accident, but that it was relatively cheap to procure.  They wrote out a Name and a Phone Number and told the Italians what they could expect to pay for a Year’s Vacation.  Well, the Italians bulked as such a dishonorable suggestion and swore they wouldn’t give a lead lira for any favors.  The French shrugged their shoulders and left to go home to their Hero’s Parade.  It seems the Taliban were miffed enough at the Italians for their attitude, that they moved their forces around, and though the Region was strategically a nowhere land, it was suddenly the focal point of intense fighting.  So a great number of the Italians died for nothing else but Honor, and they didn’t even save any money.  To rebuild their shattered garrison it cost ten times what the Payoff would have been.   The Americans also reacted poorly in a similar situation when they ‘discovered’ or the Press found out that a Security Company was paying off the Taliban to allow the major supply route road to stay open.  You think the Press would know when to shut up.  So the American’s, knuckling under to He-Man Macho Political Pressure, had to fire the ‘corrupt’ Security Company and actually Fight to keep the Supply Road open.  Well the Road was hundreds of miles long, and suddenly the Taliban was contesting every inch of it.  And the American’s had to do all this Fighting while being strangled for Supplies (duh!).  I suppose hundreds of American’s died because back then the public was still taking the Press seriously.  Now, the Military would just have to call it all of bunch of Fake News and keep with the  Program that’s working just fine. Or maybe it was the case that the Military really  was appalled and decided to Fight instead of Pay.  Yes, it boggles the mind, but there are crazy people like that.  Italians aren’t the only people will to die for nothing better than Honor.

 

Oh, wait!  Remember General Petraeus and the Iraqi Surge.  Basically, the Key to his Strategy was to pay off the Sunni Tribes to stop fighting against the Americans.  He even armed them so they could offset the Shia Militias.  Now that is a Guy who would have had no qualms about paying the Taliban to keep the roads open.  I wonder how much he would have paid them to ‘take’ certain Provincial Towns so that the American’s could pretend to Win Battles taking them back again.  If Petraeus was no real hero, he certainly knew how to act like one.  A real John Wayne.   But was Petraeus uniquely cynical or are they ALL like that?  Interesting question.  But it’s not simply a question of being either Honorable or a Scoundrel, but also of either being either Smart or Stupid.  This is not Morally or Intellectually just a 2-dimensional Picture.      

 

Anyway, the New Engagement Policy will roll back the Old Engagement Policy and go back to the ‘Fight to Win’ Policy that was utilized back when Americans had upwards of 100,000 Troops in the Country, that they would admit to, and who know how many Foreign.  You have to wonder what the heck the American Generals are now thinking.  If America with its International Allies could not suppress the Taliban with such a huge super Army, how do they think they will do with just a tiny fraction of that number?  There are only 13,000 Troops in Country right now.  The Trump Administration has alienated any possible Allies.  You know, what Foreign Soldier from anywhere in the World would want to serve under the current American President, and no Nation’s Public would sit quietly and allow its Sons and Daughters to be taken up to fight under the command of the current American President.  Adolf Hitler during the mid-1930’s was more Internationally Popular than Donald Trump is today.   

 

Then we must consider that the Taliban has only grown stronger.  It’s been 7 years since the last serious fighting, and that means that Taliban boys who were 9 years old back then are now 16.  In America these kids would be playing High School Foot Ball, and it would be a pretty good game.  And these Kids would need minimal Military Training to fight alongside their fathers.  Just think about who they are and where they come from.  The Taliban have been at War almost constantly since 1980.  Every night when they sit down to family dinner they hear stories about the glorious bravery of those who died, and the cunning cleverness of those who lived.  From mother’s milk on these kids have heard every detail of every Battle ever won or lost.  From the time they were three years old, every stick on the ground was a Toy and that Toy was some kind of Gun or Grenade Launcher.  These Kids will go up against American who go through an 8 Week Boot Camp, and then business as usual Field Training when they go out to their units.  That’s okay as Modern Developed Nation Armies go, but the Taliban Kids were born and raised to be Fighters.  And they have learned all the lessons of Modern American Warfare.  Hmmmm … unless the Americans have something new up their sleeves… well, Drones are relatively new and can be mighty pesky.  But Drone Technology now is too limited and spotty to weigh in significantly in any full scale battle campaign.  A Concept that would Work would be Artificial Intelligence Drones that would simply go out and identify and kill Taliban Fighters and do it night and day, around the clock.  They wouldn’t have to be very big either.  I don’t know why they make Drones so large.  They are virtually the same size as the planes they are replacing.  Well, Planes were designed big so they could carry human pilots and big heavy old ‘dumb’ bombs.  But with Artificial Intelligence Weapon’s Systems and Targeting, a killer drone wouldn’t have to be much larger than a seagull or an eagle.  You could even have one big Mother Drone (half the size of small single engine Cessna, so the “Big Mother Drone” would be kind of small too) circling high above which could refuel and rearm its Baby Drones.  The Baby Drones, with fixed wing, and not those noisy slow helicopter things that the Taliban could swat like flies, could identify a target from up high (or use Targeting Info from the Mother), cut power and go into a silent dive where it would buzz close enough to shoot one small caliber bullet into the head of its target (the accuracy of its aim assured by using the same Image Stabilization circuitry that steadies the video in almost every cheap camera sold today), then  the Baby Drone would rev back up and climb back up to ‘Mommy’ to dock and take on another load so it could make another pass.  You don’t need a 2500 lbs. drone carrying 250 lbs. missiles that price tag out at two and a half million dollars in order to kill somebody when a 20 cent 22 bullet from a $2000 Baby Drone could do the same thing.   It would kill somebody just as dead.   But so far I haven’t heard that the Americans are fielding any such Weapon’s Systems.   It seems that   Generals are generally slow and stupid when it comes to adopting Innovations.  Only during Major Total Wars where Nations are Fighting for their Survival do the Generals seem to allow themselves to be influenced by Technologies and that is only because they see themselves running out of bodies that they can through into the Battle (for instance, in World War I the British had prototype Tanks almost from the very start of the War but resisted the very idea of them, that is until they suffered so many losses that by 1917 they were entertaining the idea of bringing tanks onto the Battlefield to replace the men they no longer had, but then America came into the War with the promise that there would be thousands of new bodies to toss into the Mauls of Death, so the Tank was again put on the strategic backburner.)

 

Anyway, I wonder whether the American Generals genuinely realize what they are getting into.  Maybe they think that what fighting they have seen from the Taliban in these last few Slow Years has been everything they got, and so they suppose that it wouldn’t take much more to knock them over completely.  Maybe they don’t realize that Obama’s Engagement Rules actually served to encourage the Taliban to cut way back, and to hold most of their material and personnel assets in reserve in order to consolidate, rebuild and re-arm, probably for the eventuality that when America does leave, the Taliban can quickly pounce on Kabul Puppet Regime and return Afghanistan to the 2001 Status Quo.

 

America could be unloosing on itself an avalanche of the best insurgent fighters in the World today (a mix of salty old ‘unkillable’ Vets and zealous young athletes) who have behind them warehouses (or ‘warecaves’) full of new weapons, stockpiles of ammo, and enough high explosives to place an Improvised Explosive Device on every other square inch that America wishes to step on or near.  And it wasn’t some stupid Trump idea, either.  These are Career Generals we are talking about!  But, on the other hand, Trump did use his Presidential Powers to reshuffle the top levels of the Chain of Command at the Pentagon.  I suppose the Moron might have put the Block Heads in charge.  Maybe all the Big Thinking is being done by a guy called Mad Dog.

 
If I were a Ground Pounder in the American Services, I would be nervous right about now.  When you kiss your wives goodbye it’d probably be a good idea to tell them that it’s okay if they make plans without you.  And then with as much peace of mind as you can muster, jump up on your horse and ride off to your own Little Big Horn.   

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