World War Three by Plague

I was reading my own Blog from several weeks ago, about the impending War between America and China, and thought to myself that if China acted first, by collapsing the American Economy by releasing its entire Reserve of Dollars into the Market and thus throwing the dollar into a hyper-inflation, then, well, America would probably respond militarily just out of an attitude of, well, sour grapes.  It would be messy for everyone with no clear victor.  But if, as I stated in that earlier Blog, America simply fabricated a Nuclear Provocation, and then completely destroyed China in something in and around 5 minutes, then America would end up being a clear Victor and with the rest of the World in smoking ashes, much as it was after World War Two, a Time which America still holds as being something its Golden Age, its Good Ol’ Days.  It is probable that America would like the same outcome for its next big war.   So, China should be worried.  Really worried.   Very worried.  

Chinese Strategists  would be looking for a First Punch option of their own that could destroy America without the consequence of a devastating reprisal in return.  Hmmmm.    A Biological Attack.  A Government Designed Plague, or ‘epidemic’ as we now call them.   Well, we are already mentally prepared for such a thing.  Look at all the concern there was a few years ago over the ‘Bird Flu’.   

A Designer Disease can be engineered in several different ways.  One can design the Vector or Virus, or whatever, to attack only a certain genetic type, for instance, people with blue eyes or who can roll their tongues.  Or they can be designed to miss people with certain genetic  types, that is, where the disease won’t be able to key into the genetic structures  of people with black hair and brown eyes.   Since there is no one particular racial type for Americans, having a genetic specific disease would probably not be the way to go in attacking America.  Also, since China does have such a wide distribution of genetics itself… they call themselves ‘Han’ but this is more in the order of a Cultural Designation then a truly Racial one… they are really too diverse to find some specific genetic marker for immunity which could save all their different sub-racial groups in China that wouldn’t also save a great many Americans, which would tend to tip the Chinese hand and reveal to America that there had been a specific genetically targeted attach and probably from China. I would be suspicious if none of the Chinese People residing in America acquired so much as a sniffle while the rest of the Population were, well, dying at such a rate that bodies wrapped in plain sheets or stuffed in garbage bags were stacking up along the streets  in piles too high to look over.   So, yes, the Chinese would have to make the terrible decision that all the ‘China Towns’ all over the world would have to suffer too.  Prices of War are morally expensive, aren’t they. 

So probably what the Chinese would do would be to design both a very deadly fast acting disease, very stable to protect against the possibility of its mutating and coming back to bite those who created it, and to create along with it a sure-fire anecdote, an immunity to the disease.  One thing they could do with this Immunity would be to simply determine China’s most popular edible treat or drink, and go to the production facilities and spike it with the Immunization.  Or on a broader and more organized scale, they could fabricate a Bird Flu scare of their own and completely immunize their Population.  But this would be a tricky strategy to actually pull off.  If the Chinese Flu threat looked too ‘real’ the International Health Organizations would pound down the doors and be too much a part of it, and such Organizations  could not really be turned away or boxed in without raising too much suspicion.  And so the Chinese Government would need to be perceived as ‘over-reacting’ to a minor threat when they went into producing Vaccines to cover their entire Population.   And then, when the Vaccines were given out, the Chinese could fabricate some very dangerous looking ‘side-effect’ casualty  numbers, indicating that one or two people out of a thousand had severe reactions to the Immunization and died horrible painful deaths.  In that way, the International Community would not exactly be clamoring for their own share of the Immunization Vaccine.  Then the Chinese could publish relatively low mortality figures from the Flu itself, making it look as though they had miscalculated  tremendously – making a Cure that was worse than the Disease itself.  Americans would be fooled because they love to think in terms of how stupid communists and socialists are and so a huge fabricated Communist blunder would come as no surprise.    

Then the Chinese could launch their attack.  We’ve seen all the movies.  Just take the Disease to the airports.  The best time would be when all the colleges and universities let out on vacation.  It presents the largest wave of Transcontinental Travel.   When everyone in the World started getting sick, China could allay suspicion by publishing large casualty reports of its own, and ordering for itself a General Stay At Home Quarantine, thereby even the Chinese People themselves would think that there was a huge Epidemic, but if they all stayed at home, they wouldn’t see that anybody was actually getting sick.  Tweets and the Internet would stay relatively quiet.  As the diseased progressed through the rest of the World, the Chinese could have a discrete door to door Relief Campaign, starting from the Top and going down to the Bottom, to take people food and water and the news that ‘their particular district’ was free of the Plague and that it would be safe to come out and go back to work.   Only the Internet would be down, for unspecified  technical reasons.   To the Rest of the World, China could be reporting billions of deaths and major riots in every one of its Cities, just as in the Rest of the World.  No one would guess that the attack came from China.  Well, except for the Conspiracy Nuts.  

So, what should America and the rest of the World do?   As much as I sympathize with China’s desire to defend itself, still, I would be one of the first casualties of the Plague War, and would therefore put the rest of the World on alert to watch for any action of the Chinese Government to either officially immunize its Population, or even to arrange a situation where everyone in China was given something to eat or drink together.   As for myself, I am going out right now to find a bottle of Coke or Pepsi that was bottled in China.  

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World War Three by Plague, Part Two

 

It is nice that I am able to intrigue myself with what I write, and that is exactly what has happened.  You see, recently I had written a piece on what must be an impending War between America and China, offering several scenarios, and it seemed to me that America would get the better end of it, with America having a greater chance of a more total success  with a Military War than China could do with an Economic War.  Then I wrote a piece discussing that China could perhaps improve its own chances if it were to engage in a sneak Biological Attack, a War by Plague.

I did mention that the only way such a tactic could work is if America thought China too was suffering the same Plague as America, and, unfortunately, the rest of the World.  At the time I thought that all China would have to do is control Media and Communication going out of China and plant information indicating a sweeping epidemic whipping through their entire country.   Well, five minutes after I hit the ‘publish’ button, it occurred to me that America has satellites up in close earth orbit that could count the number of white hairs in Bin Laden’s beard through a rain cloud and a wad of mosquito netting.  And their Spy Drones can see even better  -- if you reach up and wave at one, then the Americans have your fingerprints.   So the Chinese Plan would have to be much more elaborate.  A Great Play would have to be performed all throughout China involving hundreds of thousands of active actors collaborating to fool not only the American Intelligence Analysts but also even the greatest number of their own Population.

Oh, and the Disease… I was thinking about that too.   Probably it would be best if it has a relatively long incubation period before going active.   But it would have to be very contagious while it was still dormant in regards to overt symptoms.   The primary idea is for the disease to spread and spread and spread, all over the World before the symptoms would actually manifest thus alerting all of the Disease Control Organization that could shut down airports and order quarantines and such.   In perfect terms, everyone in the World, except the majority of Chinese, would have to already have the Disease through contagion, before they knew they had it, that is, before the symptoms would ‘pop’ and the actual dying begin.

Anyway, once the disease started Symptomizing  World Wide, what would be observable in China would have to be closely similar to what could be observed in the rest of the World, excluding what could be accounted for in Cultural differences in the way peoples treat their Dead.    I can only guess, but my first instincts tell me that there would have to be a great deal of activity with ambulance vehicles and coroner vehicles.  Then traffic would seem to shut down to reflect people staying home from work and locking themselves safely behind doors.   I guess there would be signs of rioting in certain districts.   Mass burials involving large earth moving construction vehicles would be the rule, but some large fires of burning bodies would also take place.  After a while one could suppose that Emergency Crews would also begin to stay home, or die, and so the Ambulance and Coroner Vehicle activity would slow down, and bodies, wrapped in bedding, would begin to pile up in the streets.  The Chinese would have to be careful about how many ‘dead bodies’ were  shown to the satellites, because, after a certain point, living care givers, that is, the people who move bodies out to the street, well they would die off too and one could assume that dead bodies would  begin to pile up in the houses and apartments out of sight to America’s Eyes in the Sky.  

All of this would have to be play acted.  Also, while foreigners without communication assets could be ignored, those foreigners in Embassies with Satellite Communication would have to be seriously duped – elaborately conned.  One would have to spray the air with Decay to fool them into staying indoors.  People would have to be placed outside their doors shrieking in painful mourning or pretending to agonize in the throes of Death.   Communication coming out of the Embassies would have to reflect a belief that China was actually Plague Stricken like the rest of World.

Party Members would have to find a way of stockpiling fake ‘dead bodies’ in almost every house and dwelling in China, as the satellites would have to see these Dead Bodies coming out of the houses and apartments.  They could not just be delivered, as the satellites would immediately detect the ruse.

How long would the Chinese have to act out this Tremendous Play?  Well, that would depend upon the Death Rate of the Plague, that is, the Percent of Population Dead Per Day Rate.  The Chinese would have to make a guess as to when most of the American Intelligence Analysts would die off or have a great deal more on their minds than how to ‘connect the dots’ of what is coming out of China.   Those people looking at all that Satellite and Spy Drone information and interpreting it, well, after all, it is just a job for them, and eventually they would either stop coming to work, to protect themselves or to try to protect their own families, or they might die like everyone else.

So after a certain point the Chinese Party members could go door to door and tell people that ‘the disease has finally burned out’, and then they would be thrilled to see quite a complete reunion of friends and neighbors down in the streets.  Party members could slow down the natural conclusions, that there really was no Plague at all, not in China anyway, by claiming that other districts were hit ‘far worse’ and their own district escaped rather easy.

Now, could the Chinese put together such an elaborate ruse, involving maybe a hundred thousand active conspirators without creating any suspicion?  If one squealer could get the word out of stockpiling fake dead bodies to a foreign intelligence agent who would believe it, then, well, it would all be over, and the Americans would begin their own ruse – hitting Seoul South Korea, Tokyo Japan,  Okinawa, Guam, and Australia with Nuclear Weapons and blaming this Attack on China, and retaliating after just about 10 minutes with a Total Obliteration Strike of their own, turning China into one large Plate of Glass.  America would no longer have anything to fear from China, and at the same time be relieved from not only having to pay back all that Chinese Debt, but being relieved of paying back Japan and Korea too.  After seeing what happened to China, countries that owe America Money would be very careful about ever asking for it back.

And the Americans could say, to themselves, as only they would know the Truth, that in the Great Competition which is at the roots of Capitalism, there is more than one way to Win.